Introduction to Outright Betting
To succeed at trading, you should find early prices that should drop by a large amount prior to the event. In that way, through the use of the betting exchanges to lay off players at lower odds, you’re able to see gains by either “arbing”/”scalping”, (i.e., backing player at higher odds while laying off at low odds), thus locking in a small profit regardless of the outcome), or by laying off part of the initial stake to wind up with a much smaller stake in the end, but at significantly higher odds.
It isn’t as important to get on early prices in an outright betting system. We aren’t seeking to gain from price movements during the week, but instead, look for odds that are higher than a particular player’s actual chance of succeeding. The outcome is that the outright plays for the PGA and the European Tours will likely by shown on Monday nights. By then, many books will offer outright odds for the Tours; major alignment of prices usually doesn’t happen until the next day. Since the books tend to report odds a lot later than on the main two Tours with much lower price modifications, outright plays for other Tours will usually be posted near the end of the week.
The importance of each-way betting
Since the outright plays that post on this site aren’t closed out in-running through the betting exchanges, (to learn about the trading alternative, refer to Shaker’s discussion under the heading, “Why win only?”), it’s important to boost your odds of success by making use of the each-way terms whenever you’re able to get them. Aside from a select groups of golfers, the likelihood of a player ending up 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 5th is highly larger than the chances of them ending in first place. For that reason, other than a handful of instances where a player’s odds stand quite short, just about every outright play placed in Tour-Tips will be each way (“e.w.”).
An each-way bet combines together, equally proportioned, a win-only (futures) bet and a place-only bet. The typical place-only odds are one fourth the win-only odds, although there are variations between the different books, while the places offered are normally 4 or 5. It’s obviously better, in place-only odds, to have more places and a larger fraction, but 5 places at 1/5 odds are better than 4 places at 1/4 odds for the same full outright price, in my opinion.
The each-way bet is an option offered by most books, though it is possible to put together your own each-way bet at books that do not offer win-only and place-only odds bundled together as an each-way option, as is the case with Five Dimes, Centrebet, and Olympic, which instead offer win-only and place-only odds separately. All that you need to do is place half your total bet on a player to win and the second half on the player to place. Keeping the first and second place amounts the same creates much less confusion, in my opinion.
Every book on The List will present outright odds for PGA Tour matches, at least, and the majority shall offer them pertaining to European Tour events too. That page also goes over whether each book presents each-way or just win-only odds and whether they cover Tours that are not part of the main Tours that men participate in.
The option of place betting
If the probability of a player winning it all is lower than just placing 2nd, 3rd, or 4th, etc., then it would be reasonably prudent to bet place-only instead. There is no reason for you to waste half your bet on a player to win the event when it is possible to have your whole bet on a player to finish in the top four or five.
There’s only one rebuttal to this: there are many more kinds of each-way odds offered than place-only. You might often locate a player at a best price of 100/1 with a book that pays 5 places at 1/4 odds which shows as 1/4 1-2-3-4-5, but you could struggle to locate the same player at 25/1 to be placed. It’s really a matter of trade-offs. If I’m only able to get 16/1 on a player to place, then I’d advise betting at 100/1, since 0.5* stake at 25/1 to place isn’t much worse than 1* stake at 16/1, and a slight chance of the 100/1 win at 0.5* stake still exists.
Of the books included on the list, those offering place-only odds on a regular basis are SkyBet (1/4 1-2-3-4-5), Paddy Power (1/5 1-2-3-4-5), Centrebet (1/4 1-2-3-4), and SIA (1/4 1-2-3-4). Place-only odds are also offered by two other books, Five Dimes (1/5 1-2-3-4-5) and Olympic (1/4 1-2-3-4), but this doesn’t occur until Tuesday of each week at the earliest, so I will already have posted my selections by that time.
The benefits of outright betting
The advantages of outright betting are relative to trading in that you only need to submit your stake one time. Your money doesn’t need to be tied up many times over your final stake — as in trading. It is also easy and the process is finished with just one wager.
The restrictions of outright betting
Trading lets you make a winning wager on a player with the chances that will be much better than anything you can have with a simple outright bet. The compromise you make in getting simplicity and convenience is lower odds. And, as previously outlined, most outright plays that Tour-Tips offers will be each-way, even though a player has only a very slight chance of being the winner of the event. You might think this wastes half a bet, but the odds make place-only betting rather limited.
It might also look like a waste of two half-stakes, considering that at Tour-Tips, standard procedure is to give the option of three outright each-way plays for every event. All three may take places, but only one will triumph over the event. If one happens to win, the half-stakes on the other two lose, by default. Again, the limited availability of alternative place-only odds keeps outright plays as each-way, keeping the problem going.
Lastly, the outright plays that are shown at Tour-Tips are not closed out in-running when using the betting exchanges. At the minimum the player must place, if not they lose their whole stake. This is a result of posting outright plays openly as ‘outright plays’ — their yield/defeat proof is calculated only by how well they do as outright plays and not on how well they might have been closed out in-running. In the case of personal wagers, it’s clearly to your advantage to cover yourself by making use of the betting exchanges if you’ve got an outright play on a player, and they’re either in the lead or not far behind the leader. How much of your profit to lock in and how much you wish to continue playing with is your own choice. Tour Tips doesn’t close out their outright plays in-running, but this is just for recording, not advice.
What if published odds or a player’s place terms are not available?
Using the following rule as a guideline, I would recommend taking odds on a player only if they are present at no more than 1/3 less than the odds presented at Tour-Tips. If you wish to play 50/1 outright, then you must take odds at 33/1 but no less than that. For a 33/1 outright play, take odds at 22/1 but do not go below that. And so on and so forth.
Another unwritten rule to heed is: accept place terms of 1/5 1-2-3-4-5 only when the absolute odds are no lower than 15% above place terms of 1/4 1-2-3-4-5. Sticking with this rule, 20/1 at 1/4 1-2-3-4-5 is much preferred over 22/1 at 1/5 1-2-3-4-5, but not 25/1 at 1/5 1-2-3-4-5.
In the same way — take place terms of 1/4 1-2-3-4 only in the event the outright odds are at a minimum 20% higher than place terms of 1/4 1-2-3-4-5. Using this rule, 33/1 at 1/4 1-2-3-4-5 is not preferred over 45/1 at 1/4 1-2-3-4 but is over 40/1 at 1/4 1-2-3-4.
Lastly, take place terms of 1/4 1-2-3-4 in the event the outright odds are at a minimum 5% higher than place terms of 1/5 1-2-3-4-5. By these guidelines 25/1 at 1/4 1-2-3-4 is more desirable, but 22/1 at 1/5 1-2-3-4-5 is preferable to 23/1 at 1/4 1-2-3-4.
Keep in mind, though, that these are simply rules of thumb, not mathematically proven tenets; different place terms are better in different situations.
This is simply a beginners guide to outright betting, so be sure to ask any questions that you have.